Technical Analysis for AMD 2/24--------Pre-Market
So the market the entire week is going to be focused on NVDA earnings this week and we got the shocking claim from TD Cowen that MSFT is actually starting to scale back their AI investments. This would be the first shot across the bow for potentially a recalibration of the AI bubble. The same time AAPL is building a new AI server factory. AAPL doesn't exactly help AMD in any way shape of form but MSFT was one of the only adopters of the 350x so if they are scaling back then shittttttttttttttt. If there are cuts to be made, do you think its going to come from AMD or NVDA??? I'm sure it will be both for sure but I would bet a sizeable pile of money that it would be AMD zero'ed out first before you touch NVDA. *Update MSFT is rejecting this research*
I do think it is interesting to shift our focus to Europe a little bit in AI. I think with Trump's isolationism pitch, Europe is looking to be completely self-reliant and that includes development of their own tech. Remember Europe as a continent has an economy similar in size to the US. So it is a sizeable market. I heard last year VC firms in America raised like $97 Billion for AI applications and Europe as a whole only raised like $6Billion. That might change coming up.
But one of my market podcasts said something that resonated with me (if you're from Europe don't take offense to this): "Europe has less adventurism and risk taking than America bc they are the ones that stayed. America is made up of people who have in their DNA risk taking. They left the confines of Europe and history to tame the new world. Now the hub of innovation in America is California where those risk takers left the safety of the East Coast to go west. You could argue California has the Adventurous adventurers from America."
This sentiment sort of just blew my top off my head and I think its really interesting. But that doesn't mean that Europe is not going to jump in. Europe LEADS the US in regulations from the EU in AI so they very very much could have stifling regulations but they also could have a stable environment and rules for some of these models to actually come to market. That is a big problem with things here in the US. You don't know if some of this stuff is actually legal. Was it trained on copyrighted materials? All of it is just hmmmmm interesting. But I would say in the coming year Europe is definitely worth keeping its eye out for AI development for sure. If you live in Europe and can give us any color in the coming months, I would greatly appreciate a less American-Centric viewpoint.
AMD rejected off the top trendline annnnnnnnnnnd is trying to keep moving flat out of the downtrend. The entire market is going to sort of hold tight I think for NVDA. If NVDA beats I think we see the broader market rally. But I do have to ask if NVDA goes parabolic here, is their win our loss???? Do we move in a divergent path from NVDA's success at this point in AI??? I'm assuming weakness in NVDA's numbers will also crater AMD, AVGO, etc. as well. So are we in a lose lose scenario?