Unpopular Opinion: Finland's entry is overrated

Finland is not going to win Eurovision in 2025.

There are too many factors working against it:

#1: The jury. This is the most obvious point, but this isn't really a song that the jury vote typically loves. I'd say that at best it will receive a respectable jury score (at worst it will get absolutely tanked by them), and it just isn't going to suffice, especially if the jury ends up piling on some other specific entry, which happens fairly often, and it's going to create a lead that this entry is not going to catch up with. And needless to say there is basically no way this entry is going to be the one that'll be the heavy jury favorite, so that already makes things difficult.

#2: The televote. "But wait, isn't this going to get lots of televotes?" I think so, but I doubt it will have a monster score, nowadays in order to win you usually need A LOT of total points, and the televote tends to play a huge role in that. This entry needs a heavy amount of support from the televote, and it will get some, but not quite enough. Why won't it have a massive televote score? Likely due to the following points...

#3: Too sexual. Now, the audience that watches Eurovision is generally rather progressive-minded and isn't going to take outright offense to this entry. That said, it is very brazen with the subtlety of a sledgehammer, and I think it's just a bit too raunchy for enough people to truly get behind it. It's still going to get a lot of support but not widely enough; plenty of people, regardless of their moral standards, are going to prefer a "classier" entry instead of something this risqué.

#4: Too many similar entries. This year we have A LOT of attention-grabbing, provocative, noisy televote-bait entries, and it's guaranteed they are going to compete heavily for points. They will step on each other's toes in that regard. Now Finland is likely to come out on top out of these kinds of entries, but the vote is going to be split at least somewhat and this could ruin its chances of truly running away with the competition. I predict that this year's winner will NOT be any of these entries, including Finland's, for this reason, and the actual winner will be something more subdued, which will ironically stand out more than "PAY ATTENTION TO ME" entries like these and others of its kind.

#5: It isn't THAT good. It is a great entry, but to call it a masterpiece is overselling it, in my opinion. Now you don't need to be a masterpiece in order to win Eurovision (you could make the comparison to 2018's winner, in that regard) but for starters this entry is not the second coming of Käärijä that some are making it out to be. I don't think it can live up to what he did in 2023, and to me it's also inferior to Baby Lasagna in 2024. People are desperately looking for the next instance of such an entry and they've latched onto this one, but I don't see this entry making the same impact those did. And even those entries failed to win, so why would this one stand a chance all of a sudden, especially with these other factors in mind? Those entries won the televote, but this one will not be 1st place in the televote unlike those entries, I predict, largely due to points #3 and #4 stated above as well. It isn't quite up to snuff, comparatively. Which isn't a knock against it, it's just a really high bar to even come close to.

#6: They've revealed their hand too early. The national final performance was highly impressive, maybe TOO much so, because I expect the end performance during Eurovision to be not too far off from what we've already seen. So the surprise factor is already largely gone, unlike a bunch of remaining entries that have either had a modest presentation in their NF or have barely revealed anything if at all, which builds more intrigue than if you already basically know what the entry is going to look like. Now I KNOW what some may be thinking: "but much of the audience hasn't checked out the entries yet prior to Eurovision itself, so they'll still be surprised". To some extent that's true, but I still believe that trying to build hype THIS early by basically revealing the entire act is not a good strategy. Now I know this is presumptuous, the final performance COULD be much different, but honestly I doubt they'll make a lot of changes, I think they're happy with the performance they've already come up with and the reception it has gotten. It already looks very polished and I get the feeling it's already a mostly finished product. This leaves the door open for other entries to come along and actually surprise people by the time Eurovision itself rolls around. It was a fatal mistake of Finland's entry to show this much, this early. This prematurely, you could say.

#7: Country bias. Finland has won before, but only once, and traditionally it is not a country that gets a lot of favoritism in the ESC when it comes to voting. It's unfortunate but certain entries naturally tend to receive more points just because of the country they're from. Like if this were (somehow) Sweden's entry, it would be getting more points by default. Any of the "underdog countries" always have an uphill battle to face and as I've said before this entry is not quite amazing enough to overcome it. Even Käärijä did not win in 2023 and you cannot compare this year to 2006's Lordi because this year it's basically competing against a bunch of other "Lordi's" that focus on spectacle just as much as this entry does.

Now if it were just one or maybe two of these obstacles, it could still win. But all of them at once make it extremely difficult.

Finally, the following points have less to do with how it'll perform, but moreso explaining why it's overrated.

#8: Wishful thinking. Plenty of ESC fans WANT Finland to win this year, but that doesn't mean it's going to. Yes this could be a self-fulfilling prophecy, as said people will likely vote for it. Obviously. But the wider audience, as well as the jury, as a whole isn't going to care as much about how "poetic" it would be for Finland to finally win again, for this to be the winner of the 69th Eurovision, or that it'll be Lordi's 20th-year-anniversary next year. These factors absolutely will convince some people to vote for it but this alone I fear is not sufficient to allow it to overcome the many obstacles it faces.

#9: People are looking for a "clear favorite" already. So far we have not had any entries that seem like they truly stand out as potential winners. Nevertheless people always try looking for one, and many have decided that this entry is the one they see as the main candidate, because out of the entries so far this seems like the most likely winner. But as I've said earlier, it decided to shoot its shot too early. It is likely that either something else will come along that upstages it, or that once the competition rolls around there'll be an entry with more fanfare than this in the end.

All in all, people in ESC communities are largely grossly overestimating this entry already. Like I've said this is mostly wishful thinking and if you analyze it more honestly then it becomes apparent that it is going to fall short. As satisfying as it would be for Erika to "avenge" Käärijä, and to a lesser extent Baby Lasagna, I'm afraid it isn't going to happen.

If this DOES win somehow, it's going to be extremely close. But personally I don't think it'll even reach 2nd, and to be honest it might even fall outside of the Top 5. I think many ESC fans are getting a little too excited for this one. It has an outsider chance, but it is not even remotely close to being a clear favorite when you look at it more critically.

Sorry fellas, but it isn't coming to Finland next year.