No SNAP + China Tarriffs = WMT Puts

So WMT is probably the least volatile stock in the whole SP500. Which means the puts are very cheap.

Here is the rainbow ursid case:

- Stock is up 2x in 2024 for no real reason and now at 40 PE

- 80% of Walmart merchandise comes from China and will be impacted by tariffs

- 25% of SNAP benefits are spent at Walmart and this is on the chopping block (on the table to be reduced / removed in reconciliation bill later)

It seems like policy headwinds and high valuations / low IV could be the perfect setup for a "larger than expected move" for WMT.

I bought the June20 80P for like $0.75c/contract. It was $80 only 3 months ago..